Understanding expected value in sports betting.

Understanding Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting

Sports betting generates millions around the world, but is luck all you need to win? The answer is no. Entering the world of betting with knowledge is fundamental, and a crucial concept for long-term success is Expected Value, also known as EV.

This article will explain everything about Expected Value in sports betting. You'll learn what EV is, how to calculate it, and how to use it to make profitable betting decisions.

What is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?

Expected Value is a mathematical concept that indicates the average profit you can expect from placing a specific bet over the long term. In other words, it considers both the amount of the bet and the probability of winning to determine whether the bet is profitable or not.

Imagine a simple scenario: flipping a coin. In this situation, the chances of landing on heads or tails are equal (50% each). If you bet $1.00 on heads and the sportsbook offers odds of 2.00 (meaning you receive $2.00 if you win), the EV calculation would be:

• Winnings from bet ($2.00) x Probability of winning (50%) = $1.00
• Money lost on bet ($1.00) x Probability of losing (50%) = $0.50

Now add the results: $1.00 (win) -$0.50 (loss) = $0.50.

In this case, the Expected Value is positive ($0.50), indicating that over the long term, you expect to profit $0.50 for every $1.00 bet placed in this specific scenario (heads with 2.00 odds).

Advantages of Expected Value (EV) in Betting

Calculating Expected Value offers several advantages for the bettor:

• Make data-driven decisions: EV considers real probabilities, not just hunches, helping you focus on bets with profit potential.
• Identify sportsbooks with advantageous odds: Different odds between sportsbooks can alter the EV. By comparing, you can find opportunities with a positive expected value.
• Manage your bankroll intelligently: A positive EV indicates that with discipline and a sufficient number of bets, you should profit in the long run. This allows for more strategic bankroll management.

How to Calculate Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting

The formula for calculating Expected Value is quite simple:

• EV = (Win amount x Win probability) - (Bet amount x Loss probability)

Let's look at a practical example:

Suppose you want to bet on Team A to win a soccer match. The sportsbook offers odds of 2.50 for Team A's victory. You plan to bet $10.00.

• Win amount: $10.00 (your bet) x 2.50 (odds) = $25.00
• Win probability: Based on your analysis, let's assume the chance of Team A winning is 40% (convert this value to a decimal: 40/100 = 0.4)
• Loss probability: 100% - 40% = 60% (convert to decimal: 60/100 = 0.6)
• Bet amount: $10.00

Now let's calculate the EV:

• EV = ($25.00 x 0.4) - ($10.00 x 0.6) = $